North Carolina’s coastal forests are retreating at a faster pace, with a new study finding that more than one-fifth of forest cover across part of the state’s coastal plain disappeared between 1985 and 2021. The findings, published in PLOS One and reported by North Carolina State University and Phys.org, show that forest loss accelerated significantly after 2010. Researchers say rising sea levels, increasing salinity and the landscape’s proximity to coastal channels are driving much of the change. The study focused on the Albemarle Peninsula, a low-lying area that includes private land as well as protected areas such as Pocosin Lakes National Wildlife Refuge. Researchers found that forest cover fell from about 304,729 hectares in 1985 to 269,970 hectares in 2021. That represents a net decline of 21.1%, or approximately 64,220 hectares. But the change was not evenly distributed over the 36-year period. Between 2010 and 2021, about 23,876 hectares of forest were converted to marsh, shrubs or ghost forest. That was 1.5 times the 16,968 hectares that underwent the same transition between 1985 and 2010.
Rising seas are changing the landscape
One of the clearest signs of the transformation is the spread of ghost forests. These are areas where freshwater-dependent trees have died as saltwater moves inland, leaving behind stands of pale, dead trees surrounded by shrubs or marsh vegetation.The researchers found that ghost forest area increased by about 7,561 hectares between 2010 and 2021, compared with 3,087 hectares during the earlier 1985-2010 period. That means the rate of ghost forest expansion was roughly 2.5 times higher in the later period.The mechanism is relatively straightforward. Rising seas can push saltwater farther inland and raise coastal water tables, exposing tree roots to conditions they cannot tolerate. Saturated soils can also become oxygen-poor, putting additional stress on trees.North Carolina’s Forest Service has previously documented the same process, noting that saltwater intrusion and rising coastal groundwater can leave once-healthy forests filled with standing dead trees. The agency says more than 61,000 acres of forestland affected by sea-level rise had been mapped in eastern North Carolina as of 2024.Earlier research has also shown how quickly the transition can occur. A 2020 study archived by NOAA found that 15% of unmanaged public land examined in coastal North Carolina changed from forest to transitional ghost forest between 2001 and 2014, with salinity and proximity to estuarine shorelines among the significant drivers.
Extreme weather can make the decline worse
Sea-level rise is not acting alone. The researchers identified areas that experienced severe drought between 2007 and 2011 as well as Hurricane Irene in 2011 that failed to fully recover afterward. Such events can leave coastal forests more vulnerable to saltwater and prolonged flooding. Once trees die, salt-tolerant shrubs and marsh vegetation can move into the area, pushing the landscape toward a different ecological state. The study also found that more than 30,000 hectares of the forest loss was converted to cultivated land, while other areas became shrubland, marsh, water or ghost forest. Of the 64,220 hectares of net forest loss, about 33,884 hectares transitioned into those natural coastal vegetation and water categories.
Satellites helped reveal the long-term change
To reconstruct decades of change, researchers combined satellite imagery with an artificial intelligence model designed to classify different types of land cover. They compared Landsat imagery with the newer, higher-resolution Sentinel-2 data. Sentinel-2 performed better when both systems were tested against the same 2021 landscape, but Landsat provided something the newer system could not: a much longer historical record.That made Landsat essential for tracing how the coastal landscape changed from 1985 onward. The researchers also found that combining seasonal and topographic information improved the ability of the model to distinguish ghost forests from other vegetation. The researchers say the results can help identify coastal areas most vulnerable to continued forest retreat. Earlier work in the region has similarly shown that ghost forests are an early warning sign of saltwater intrusion and rising seas, making their spread useful for tracking broader changes along the coast.
