The Reserve Bank of India‘s concessional swap facility could attract $80-85 billion in foreign currency inflows, led by strong Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) [FCNR(B)] deposits, according to an SBI research report released on Monday.The report, Ecowrap, said the RBI’s swap scheme has already brought in nearly $20 billion in inflows by July 17, providing a “positive reprieve” for India’s external sector.“‘Ecowrap’, an SBI research report, said the RBI figure of about USD 20 billion inflows till July 17 came as a ‘positive reprieve’, chiefly with a smart FCNR(B) corpus of USD 17.4 billion,” the report said.As per the report, FCNR(B) deposits accounted for $17.406 billion of the total inflows till July 17. Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings (OFCBs) contributed $1.97 billion, while External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) stood at $1.342 billion.The report expects the bulk of the inflows to come through FCNR(B) deposits.“Overall, we believe FCNR(B) deposits in the range of USD 65-70 billion should be received overall in scheme, and including OFCB and ECB at USD 80-USD 85 billion,” it said.It added that public sector banks have emerged as the key contributors to mobilising FCNR(B) deposits under the scheme.The RBI announced the concessional swap facility on June 5, 2026, as part of a series of measures to strengthen India’s balance of payments and encourage foreign currency inflows. The scheme became operational on June 8.The facility will remain open until September 30, 2026, for FCNR(B) deposits, while OFCBs and ECBs will be eligible until December 31, 2026.The measures were introduced to strengthen India’s external sector and support foreign exchange liquidity amid global market uncertainty.The SBI report said the rupee initially strengthened after the RBI’s announcement, but the gains proved short-lived.It attributed the reversal to fading hopes of a diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran, volatile energy prices and cautious foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), despite steady debt inflows and improving equity flows during June.The report estimates that the RBI’s measures could add $75-85 billion to India’s capital account in FY27, while inward remittances are expected to exceed $150 billion.It also projects foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows of $15-18 billion during FY27, along with stronger foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows in the second half of the financial year.“Thus, the overall balance of payment would be in surplus of more than USD 50 billion for FY27. This is way above our previous estimate of USD 65-70 billion deficit,” the report said. The report further expects India’s current account deficit to remain contained at 1-1.2% of GDP in FY27.(With inputs from PTI)
